ARE THE NEEDLES MOVING IN KEY RACES? – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:   It appears they are.  Again, we caution that polls are temporary, but some key numbers are showing Republican progress.

In today's RealClearPolitics report, Republican incumbent Senator Dean Heller of Nevada has overtaken Dem challenger Jackie Rosen, by two points.  Rosen had been modestly ahead until now.  Nevada is critical.  We cannot lose that seat.

Also in today's report, Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, in Quinnipiac, is nine points ahead of Dem "rising star" Beto O'Rourke, whose star apparently needs some shining.  Beto, whose real name isn't even Beto, is being exposed as the pretender he is.  We hope Ted can soon put this one away.

And in critical Arizona, our heroine, Martha McSally, has opened a six-point lead in one poll against the queen of the whackjobs, Kyrsten Sinema.  Martha was the first American woman to fly in combat.  Sinema is now exposed as having a radical past, giving aid and comfort to supporters of terrorism, and ridiculing the 9-11 attacks.  She claims to be a moderate.  The Dems have a lot of election-year "moderates" who go to Washington and put up their secret picture of Lenin.  Go Martha!

Two races to watch:  Indiana.  The incumbent Dem "moderate" Senator Joe Donnelly is running as a Trump-loving Democrat, but he voted against Judge Kavanaugh.  He'd been slightly ahead of GOP solid guy Mike Braun before that vote.  We're awaiting new polls.

And Montana.  Dem incumbent Senator Jon Tester, who is kind of a weird independent Democrat, voted against Judge Kavanaugh, but did so on privacy issues.  GOP opponent Matt Rosendale, has been running behind Tester, but the race seems to be tightening.  We await new polls. 

Remember that the election is almost four weeks away.  Any event can change votes, and the Dems must certainly be planning an October surprise.  No champagne yet.

October 11, 2018